Intelligence Analysis

A Target-Centric Approach
Eighth Edition
Robert M. Clark
Intelligence Analysis
December 2025 | 528 pages | CQ Press
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Description

Now in its Eighth Edition, Robert M. Clark's classic Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. In addition to looking at the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers, the author also examines key advances and emerging fields like activity-based intelligence and artificial intelligence-enabled analysis. Through features like end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, this text combines a practical approach to modeling with an insider perspective to serve as an ideal and insightful resource for students at all levels as well as practitioners.

Contents

Preface

Preface

Acknowledgments

Acknowledgments

Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product

  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Why Intelligence Fails
  • What this Book Is About
  • Summary
  • Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
  • Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict
  • Tools of Conflict
  • Synergy of the Tools
  • The Function of Intelligence
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
  • The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
  • Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
  • The Target
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 4: The Customer
  • Overview of Customers
  • Understanding the Customer
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 5: The Analyst
  • Critical and Logical Thinking
  • Objectivity
  • Broad Perspective
  • Good Instincts
  • The All-Source Analyst’s Role
  • The Analysis Team
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
  • The US National Intelligence Network
  • Homeland Security and Law Enforcement
  • Military
  • Nongovernmental Entities
  • Network Collaboration and Sharing
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
  • Intelligence Research
  • Current Intelligence
  • Indications and Warning
  • What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?
  • Constraints on the Intelligence Product
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions

Part II: The Analysis Process

  • Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
  • Preliminary Questions
  • Issue Definition
  • Issue Decomposition
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 9: Target Models
  • Modeling the Intelligence Target
  • General Target Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 10: The Target Framework
  • Creating a Target Framework
  • Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology
  • Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan
  • Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat
  • Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
  • Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence
  • Acquiring Raw Intelligence
  • Evaluating Evidence
  • Combining the Evidence
  • Structured Argumentation
  • A Note about the Role of Information Technology
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 12: The Information Sources
  • Filling Gaps
  • Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework
  • Identifying Gaps
  • Developing the Collection Strategy
  • Executing Collection Strategies
  • Analyst-Collector Interaction
  • Evaluating Collection
  • Collection Requirements
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
  • Denial
  • Deception
  • Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
  • Countering Denial and Deception
  • Signaling
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 14: Getting the Message Across
  • Structuring the Message
  • Presenting the Message
  • Reviewing the Analytic Product
  • Customer Interaction
  • Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In
  • Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions

Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence

  • Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
  • Background Forces
  • Synergy
  • Causal Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
  • Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
  • The Estimative Approach
  • Unintended Consequences
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 17: Scenarios
  • Why Use Scenarios?
  • Types of Scenarios
  • Scenario Perspectives
  • How to Construct Scenarios
  • Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
  • Systems Analysis Methodology
  • Performance
  • Process
  • Risk
  • Cost
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
  • Link Models
  • Network Models
  • Network Analysis
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
  • Static Geospatial Models
  • Dynamic Geospatial Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
  • Types of Simulations
  • Using Simulations
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence
  • The Process
  • Scenarios
  • Operations Research
  • Simulations
  • Prescriptive Analytics
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach
  • Introduction
  • A Possible Future Scenario
  • Conclusion: Can This Work?
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
  • The Yugoslavia NIE
  • The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE
  • Capstone Critical Thinking Questions

List of Commonly Used Acronyms

List of Commonly Used Acronyms

Index

Index

About the Author

About the Author

Additional materials

Description

Now in its Eighth Edition, Robert M. Clark's classic Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. In addition to looking at the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers, the author also examines key advances and emerging fields like activity-based intelligence and artificial intelligence-enabled analysis. Through features like end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, this text combines a practical approach to modeling with an insider perspective to serve as an ideal and insightful resource for students at all levels as well as practitioners.

Contents

Preface

Preface

Acknowledgments

Acknowledgments

Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product

  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Why Intelligence Fails
  • What this Book Is About
  • Summary
  • Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
  • Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict
  • Tools of Conflict
  • Synergy of the Tools
  • The Function of Intelligence
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
  • The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
  • Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
  • The Target
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 4: The Customer
  • Overview of Customers
  • Understanding the Customer
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 5: The Analyst
  • Critical and Logical Thinking
  • Objectivity
  • Broad Perspective
  • Good Instincts
  • The All-Source Analyst’s Role
  • The Analysis Team
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
  • The US National Intelligence Network
  • Homeland Security and Law Enforcement
  • Military
  • Nongovernmental Entities
  • Network Collaboration and Sharing
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
  • Intelligence Research
  • Current Intelligence
  • Indications and Warning
  • What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?
  • Constraints on the Intelligence Product
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions

Part II: The Analysis Process

  • Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
  • Preliminary Questions
  • Issue Definition
  • Issue Decomposition
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 9: Target Models
  • Modeling the Intelligence Target
  • General Target Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 10: The Target Framework
  • Creating a Target Framework
  • Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology
  • Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan
  • Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat
  • Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
  • Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence
  • Acquiring Raw Intelligence
  • Evaluating Evidence
  • Combining the Evidence
  • Structured Argumentation
  • A Note about the Role of Information Technology
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 12: The Information Sources
  • Filling Gaps
  • Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework
  • Identifying Gaps
  • Developing the Collection Strategy
  • Executing Collection Strategies
  • Analyst-Collector Interaction
  • Evaluating Collection
  • Collection Requirements
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
  • Denial
  • Deception
  • Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
  • Countering Denial and Deception
  • Signaling
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 14: Getting the Message Across
  • Structuring the Message
  • Presenting the Message
  • Reviewing the Analytic Product
  • Customer Interaction
  • Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In
  • Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions

Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence

  • Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
  • Background Forces
  • Synergy
  • Causal Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
  • Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
  • The Estimative Approach
  • Unintended Consequences
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 17: Scenarios
  • Why Use Scenarios?
  • Types of Scenarios
  • Scenario Perspectives
  • How to Construct Scenarios
  • Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
  • Systems Analysis Methodology
  • Performance
  • Process
  • Risk
  • Cost
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
  • Link Models
  • Network Models
  • Network Analysis
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
  • Static Geospatial Models
  • Dynamic Geospatial Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
  • Types of Simulations
  • Using Simulations
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence
  • The Process
  • Scenarios
  • Operations Research
  • Simulations
  • Prescriptive Analytics
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach
  • Introduction
  • A Possible Future Scenario
  • Conclusion: Can This Work?
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
  • The Yugoslavia NIE
  • The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE
  • Capstone Critical Thinking Questions

List of Commonly Used Acronyms

List of Commonly Used Acronyms

Index

Index

About the Author

About the Author

Additional materials

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Intelligence Analysis

A Target-Centric Approach

Robert M. Clark
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December 2025 | 528 pages | CQ Press

Format Published Date ISBN Price

Now in its Eighth Edition, Robert M. Clark's classic Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. In addition to looking at the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers, the author also examines key advances and emerging fields like activity-based intelligence and artificial intelligence-enabled analysis. Through features like end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, this text combines a practical approach to modeling with an insider perspective to serve as an ideal and insightful resource for students at all levels as well as practitioners.

Table Of Contents:

  • Preface
  • Acknowledgments
  • Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product
  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Why Intelligence Fails
  • What this Book Is About
  • Summary
  • Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
  • Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict
  • Tools of Conflict
  • Synergy of the Tools
  • The Function of Intelligence
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
  • The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
  • Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
  • The Target
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 4: The Customer
  • Overview of Customers
  • Understanding the Customer
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 5: The Analyst
  • Critical and Logical Thinking
  • Objectivity
  • Broad Perspective
  • Good Instincts
  • The All-Source Analyst’s Role
  • The Analysis Team
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
  • The US National Intelligence Network
  • Homeland Security and Law Enforcement
  • Military
  • Nongovernmental Entities
  • Network Collaboration and Sharing
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
  • Intelligence Research
  • Current Intelligence
  • Indications and Warning
  • What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?
  • Constraints on the Intelligence Product
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Part II: The Analysis Process
  • Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
  • Preliminary Questions
  • Issue Definition
  • Issue Decomposition
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 9: Target Models
  • Modeling the Intelligence Target
  • General Target Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 10: The Target Framework
  • Creating a Target Framework
  • Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology
  • Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan
  • Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat
  • Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
  • Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence
  • Acquiring Raw Intelligence
  • Evaluating Evidence
  • Combining the Evidence
  • Structured Argumentation
  • A Note about the Role of Information Technology
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 12: The Information Sources
  • Filling Gaps
  • Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework
  • Identifying Gaps
  • Developing the Collection Strategy
  • Executing Collection Strategies
  • Analyst-Collector Interaction
  • Evaluating Collection
  • Collection Requirements
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
  • Denial
  • Deception
  • Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
  • Countering Denial and Deception
  • Signaling
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 14: Getting the Message Across
  • Structuring the Message
  • Presenting the Message
  • Reviewing the Analytic Product
  • Customer Interaction
  • Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In
  • Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence
  • Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
  • Background Forces
  • Synergy
  • Causal Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
  • Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
  • The Estimative Approach
  • Unintended Consequences
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 17: Scenarios
  • Why Use Scenarios?
  • Types of Scenarios
  • Scenario Perspectives
  • How to Construct Scenarios
  • Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
  • Systems Analysis Methodology
  • Performance
  • Process
  • Risk
  • Cost
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
  • Link Models
  • Network Models
  • Network Analysis
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
  • Static Geospatial Models
  • Dynamic Geospatial Models
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
  • Types of Simulations
  • Using Simulations
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence
  • The Process
  • Scenarios
  • Operations Research
  • Simulations
  • Prescriptive Analytics
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach
  • Introduction
  • A Possible Future Scenario
  • Conclusion: Can This Work?
  • Summary
  • Critical Thinking Questions
  • Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
  • The Yugoslavia NIE
  • The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE
  • Capstone Critical Thinking Questions
  • List of Commonly Used Acronyms
  • Index
  • About the Author

Recent Product Reviews:

This is an outstanding text written by a distinguished intelligence professional and educator. Students will appreciate and benefit from its straightforward style and presentation of intelligence concepts, and faculty will appreciate its comprehensive coverage of essential intelligence principles. Practical and contemporary examples are provided to illustrate the topics, concepts, and principles that are essential to understanding the process of intelligence analysis.
Vincent E. Henry, Long Island University
A very practical and research-oriented text on the world of intelligence and analysis. This text presents issues of contemporary importance to the national security and intelligence community and critical thinking opportunities for the reader to apply logic to contemporary issues.
Robert Girod, Indiana State University
A basic and thorough view of the intelligence analysis products, process, and community.
Robert Alonzo, Texas A&M University - San Antonio
An excellent book that is useful to students, instructors, and practitioners. The structure of the book is easy to follow, with a range of questions at the end of each chapter that can stimulate learning.
Scott Keay, Edge Hill University

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