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Before the Vote
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Before the Vote
Forecasting American National Elections

Edited by:

December 1999 | 232 pages | SAGE Publications, Inc

Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods.

This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.


 
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
Forecasting US National Elections James E Campbell and James C Garand
 
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
James E Campbell
Polls and Votes
The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns  
Alan Abramowitz
Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure
Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election  
Helmut Norpoth
Of Time and Candidates
A Forecast for 1996  
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
The Future in Forecasting
Prospective Presidential Models  
Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
Thomas Holbrook
Reading the Political Tea Leaves
A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections  
Brad Lockerbie
Election Forecasting
A Look to the Future  
Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman
Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years
1952-1992 and 1996  
 
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
Nathaniel Beck
Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election
James E Campbell
The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections

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