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Intelligence Analysis
A Target-Centric Approach

Sixth Edition


July 2019 | 480 pages | CQ Press
Now in its Sixth Edition, Robert M. Clark's Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis—demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. This bestseller also includes new end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, as well as material on the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis, and dealing with intelligence customers. Clark’s practical approach combined with his insider perspective create the ideal resource for students and practitioners alike.

 
Tables, Figures, and Boxes
 
Preface
What’s New?

 
Acknowledgments

 
 
Part I: The Process, the Participants, and the Product
 
Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails

 
What the Book Is About

 
Summary

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict

 
Tools of Conflict

 
The Function of Intelligence

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle

 
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process

 
The Target

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 4: The Customer
Overview of Customers

 
Identifying the Customer

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 5: The Analyst
Critical and Logical Thinking

 
Objectivity

 
Broad Perspective

 
Good Instincts

 
The Analyst’s Role

 
Analytic Teams

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
The U.S. National Intelligence Network

 
Homeland Security

 
Military

 
Law Enforcement

 
Collaboration and Sharing

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
Intelligence Research

 
Current Intelligence

 
Indications and Warning

 
What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?

 
Constraints on the Intelligence Product

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Part II: The Analysis Process
 
Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
Preliminary Questions

 
Issue Definition

 
Issue Decomposition

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 9: Target Models
Modeling the Intelligence Target

 
Some General Target Models

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 10: The Target Framework
Creating a Target Framework

 
Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology

 
Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan

 
Issue 3: The Monopolitania BW Threat

 
Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks

 
The Dynamic Framework

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
Existing Finished Intelligence

 
Sources of Raw Intelligence

 
Evaluating Evidence

 
Combining Evidence

 
Structured Argumentation

 
A Note about the Role of Information Technology

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 12: The Information Sources: Filling Gaps
Interrelating the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework

 
Identifying Gaps

 
Developing the Collection Strategy

 
Executing Collection Strategies

 
Analyst-Collector Interaction

 
Evaluating Collection

 
Collection Requirements

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial

 
Deception

 
Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods

 
Countering Denial and Deception

 
Signaling

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance
Structuring the Message

 
Presenting the Message

 
Reviewing the Analytic Product

 
Customer Interaction

 
Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In

 
Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Part III: Anticipatory Analysis and Modeling
 
Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
Background Forces

 
Synergy

 
Causal Models

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena

 
The Estimative Approach

 
Unintended Consequences

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 17: Outcome Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?

 
Types of Scenarios

 
Scenario Perspectives

 
How to Construct Scenarios

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Systems Analysis Methodology

 
Performance

 
Process

 
Risk

 
Cost

 
Operations Research

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
Link Models

 
Network Models

 
Network Analysis

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
Static Geospatial Models

 
Dynamic Geospatial Models

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
Types of Simulations

 
Creating and Running a Simulation

 
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis

 
Decision Modeling and Simulation

 
Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis

 
Summary

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
Chapter 22: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
The Yugoslavia NIE

 
The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE

 
Critical Thinking Questions

 
Notes

 
 
List of Commonly Used Acronyms
 
Index
 
About the Author

“[Intelligence Analysis] provides a very comprehensive and well organized depiction of the intelligence function; it is well written, straightforward, and readable; and the tables, figures, graphs and maps are all appropriate and supportive of the reader’s understanding of the text because they clearly depict data and processes.”

Vincent Henry
Long Island University - Riverhead

Course cancelled due to not enough students

Mr Christopher Martinez
History/Phil/Pol Science Dept, Kingsborough Community College
June 24, 2019

Course cancelled due to not enough students

Mr Christopher Martinez
History/Phil/Pol Science Dept, Kingsborough Community College
June 17, 2019
Key features

NEW TO THIS EDITION: 

  • In response to suggestions made by readers, the organizational structure has been revised for ease of use in both introductory and advanced analysis courses.         
  • New questions at the end of each chapter encourage students to think critically about the issues being discussed.          
  • New vignettes contain current examples that connect key concepts to current issues, such as netwar in Turkey, the Khanani money laundering network, tracking the Leeds rapist, and the Enron case.          
  • A new case study of two U.S. National Intelligence Estimates includes a series of critical thinking exercises built around the analysis concepts covered in the book. It is designed for use in one of two ways in academic courses: It can be threaded through the course, using the critical thinking questions applicable to each chapter; the relevant chapters are identified with each question. Alternatively, the chapter can be used as a capstone exercise for the course.        
  • A new scenario exercise called “The Global Future” gives students experience in assessing future trends.  

KEY FEATURES:           

  • Over 70 tables and figures help illustrate various techniques and models.        
  • “Analysis Principles” boxes summarize touchstones of intelligence analysis.         
  • Contrasting NIE case studies are examined at the end of the book.   

For instructors

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