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Sales Forecasting Management
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Sales Forecasting Management
A Demand Management Approach

Second Edition
  • John T. Mentzer - University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA, Tennessee Department of Mental Health and Mental Retardation
  • Mark A. Moon - University of Tennessee-Knoxville, Tennessee, University of Tennessee-Knoxville, USA


November 2004 | 368 pages | SAGE Publications, Inc
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Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies' sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions.  

New to This Edition:   
  • The author's well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors' Web site www.jtmassociates.com
  • New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented
  • The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added
  • The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced
  • Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition.
Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.

 
PREFACE
 
1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS
INTRODUCTION

 
A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING

 
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT

 
FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS

 
THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)

 
WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?

 
SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS

 
THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT

 
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS

 
SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS

 
FUNCTIONAL SILOS

 
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK

 
 
2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
INTRODUCTION

 
SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY

 
SALES FORECOSTING COSTS

 
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION

 
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION

 
CONCLUSIONS

 
 
3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
INTRODUCTION

 
FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES

 
FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY

 
OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES

 
SUMMARY

 
 
4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION

 
HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS

 
THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING

 
FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS

 
MODEL VALIDATION

 
AN EXAMPLE

 
CONCLUSION

 
NOTES

 
 
5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION

 
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS

 
SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS

 
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS

 
MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING

 
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING

 
SUMMARY

 
APPENDIX

 
 
6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
INTRODUCTION

 
THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE

 
MULTICASTER

 
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY

 
APPENDIX

 
 
7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS
INTRODUCTION

 
STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1

 
PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY

 
FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2

 
CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2

 
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS

 
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT

 
FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS

 
CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING

 
CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2

 
 
8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION

 
FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION

 
APPROACH

 
SYSTEMS

 
 
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
CONCLUSIONS

 
APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL

 
 
9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT
INTRODUCTION

 
THE ROLE OF AUDITING

 
MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS

 
CONCLUSIONS

 
 
10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION
INTRODUCTION

 
THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION

 
THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING

 
WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE

 
THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS

 
CONCLUSIONS

 
 
REFERENCES
 
INDEX

"The authors have shared their valuable experiences and knowledge gained over the years while working with companies on sales forecasting. The book comprises of ten chapters in total and provides good coverage. The book well describes the issues, developments and required understanding about sales forecasting practices with illustrations and required possible information through appendixes and notes at the end of chapters where needed."

Anita Goyal
Management Development Insititute
The Journal of Business Perspective

"The book integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management by providing comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sale forecasting analysis. The second edition of the book provides new insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting. Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. It will be very useful for academics as well as business executives who will find much of value and insight from the book."

B. D. Pande
Personnel Today
Key features
  • To prepare sales forecasting analysts to understand the uses of their sales forecasts in their companies.
  • To provide sales forecasting managers with a technical foundation in the techniques, approaches, and systems used to develop sales forecasts.
  • To provide managers of functions that use the sales forecast with an understanding of how the forecasts are developed and the limitations of these forecasts.
  • To provide managers of functions that contribute information to sales forecasts with an understanding of the critical role those forecasts play, and how their participation in that process can be improved.
  • To provide undergraduate and graduate business students with an appreciation of all four previous points.
  • To expose all these groups to the "state of the art" in sales forecasting today, based upon experience gathered by the authors with over 400 companies.
  • To give all these groups a chance to apply what they have learned to their own data with a "state of the art" sales forecasting system designed to provide relevant sales forecasts to all the user functions in a variety of company sizes and types.

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