Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Third Edition
Randolph H. Pherson
Richards J. Heuer
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
December 2019 | 384 pages | CQ Press
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Description

“Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader.”
—Charles E. Wilson, University of Detroit Mercy

 
The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
 



Contents

Figures

Figures

Foreword by John McLaughlin

Foreword by John McLaughlin

Preface

  • Chapter 1 • Introduction and Overview
  • 1.1 Our Vision
  • 1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book
  • 1.6 Quick Overview of Chapters
  • Chapter 2 • The Role of Structured Techniques
  • 2.1 Two Types of Thinking
  • 2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations
  • 2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques
  • 2.5 Combating Digital Disinformation
  • Chapter 3 • Choosing the Right Technique
  • 3.1 The Six Families
  • 3.2 Core Techniques
  • 3.3 Selecting the Right Technique
  • 3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques
  • 3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques
  • 3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured Techniques
  • Chapter 4 • Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration
  • 4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams
  • 4.2 Dividing the Work
  • 4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes
  • 4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups
  • 4.5 Benefiting from Diversity
  • 4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry
  • 4.7 Leadership and Training
  • Chapter 5 • Getting Organized
  • 5.1 Sorting
  • 5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing
  • 5.3 Matrices
  • 5.4 Process Maps
  • 5.5 Gantt Charts
  • Chapter 6 • Exploration Techniques
  • 6.1 Simple Brainstorming
  • 6.2 Cluster Brainstorming
  • 6.3 Nominal Group Technique
  • 6.4 Circleboarding™
  • 6.5 Starbursting
  • 6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps
  • 6.7 Venn Analysis
  • 6.8 Network Analysis
  • Chapter 7 • Diagnostic Techniques
  • 7.1 Key Assumptions Check
  • 7.2 Chronologies and Timelines
  • 7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix
  • 7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation
  • 7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning
  • 7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
  • 7.7 Inconsistencies Finder™
  • 7.8 Deception Detection
  • 7.9 Argument Mapping
  • Chapter 8 • Reframing Techniques
  • 8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques
  • 8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques
  • 8.3 Conflict Management Techniques
  • Chapter 9 • Foresight Techniques
  • 9.1 Key Drivers Generation™
  • 9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder™
  • 9.3 Reversing Assumptions
  • 9.4 Simple Scenarios
  • 9.5 Cone of Plausibility
  • 9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis
  • 9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation
  • 9.8 Morphological Analysis
  • 9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning
  • 9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives
  • 9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation
  • Chapter 10 • Decision Support Techniques
  • 10.1 Opportunities Incubator™
  • 10.2 Bowtie Analysis
  • 10.3 Impact Matrix
  • 10.4 SWOT Analysis
  • 10.5 Critical Path Analysis
  • 10.6 Decision Trees
  • 10.7 Decision Matrix
  • 10.8 Force Field Analysis
  • 10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
  • 10.10 Complexity Manager
  • Chapter 11 • The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis
  • 11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques
  • 11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques
  • 11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030

Description

“Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader.”
—Charles E. Wilson, University of Detroit Mercy

 
The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
 



Contents

Figures

Figures

Foreword by John McLaughlin

Foreword by John McLaughlin

Preface

  • Chapter 1 • Introduction and Overview
  • 1.1 Our Vision
  • 1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book
  • 1.6 Quick Overview of Chapters
  • Chapter 2 • The Role of Structured Techniques
  • 2.1 Two Types of Thinking
  • 2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations
  • 2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques
  • 2.5 Combating Digital Disinformation
  • Chapter 3 • Choosing the Right Technique
  • 3.1 The Six Families
  • 3.2 Core Techniques
  • 3.3 Selecting the Right Technique
  • 3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques
  • 3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques
  • 3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured Techniques
  • Chapter 4 • Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration
  • 4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams
  • 4.2 Dividing the Work
  • 4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes
  • 4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups
  • 4.5 Benefiting from Diversity
  • 4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry
  • 4.7 Leadership and Training
  • Chapter 5 • Getting Organized
  • 5.1 Sorting
  • 5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing
  • 5.3 Matrices
  • 5.4 Process Maps
  • 5.5 Gantt Charts
  • Chapter 6 • Exploration Techniques
  • 6.1 Simple Brainstorming
  • 6.2 Cluster Brainstorming
  • 6.3 Nominal Group Technique
  • 6.4 Circleboarding™
  • 6.5 Starbursting
  • 6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps
  • 6.7 Venn Analysis
  • 6.8 Network Analysis
  • Chapter 7 • Diagnostic Techniques
  • 7.1 Key Assumptions Check
  • 7.2 Chronologies and Timelines
  • 7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix
  • 7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation
  • 7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning
  • 7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
  • 7.7 Inconsistencies Finder™
  • 7.8 Deception Detection
  • 7.9 Argument Mapping
  • Chapter 8 • Reframing Techniques
  • 8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques
  • 8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques
  • 8.3 Conflict Management Techniques
  • Chapter 9 • Foresight Techniques
  • 9.1 Key Drivers Generation™
  • 9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder™
  • 9.3 Reversing Assumptions
  • 9.4 Simple Scenarios
  • 9.5 Cone of Plausibility
  • 9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis
  • 9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation
  • 9.8 Morphological Analysis
  • 9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning
  • 9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives
  • 9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation
  • Chapter 10 • Decision Support Techniques
  • 10.1 Opportunities Incubator™
  • 10.2 Bowtie Analysis
  • 10.3 Impact Matrix
  • 10.4 SWOT Analysis
  • 10.5 Critical Path Analysis
  • 10.6 Decision Trees
  • 10.7 Decision Matrix
  • 10.8 Force Field Analysis
  • 10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
  • 10.10 Complexity Manager
  • Chapter 11 • The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis
  • 11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques
  • 11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques
  • 11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030
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Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Randolph H. Pherson , Richards J. Heuer
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December 2019 | 384 pages | CQ Press

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“Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader.”
—Charles E. Wilson, University of Detroit Mercy

 
The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
 




Table Of Contents:

  • Figures
  • Foreword by John McLaughlin
  • Preface
  • Chapter 1 • Introduction and Overview
  • 1.1 Our Vision
  • 1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book
  • 1.6 Quick Overview of Chapters
  • Chapter 2 • The Role of Structured Techniques
  • 2.1 Two Types of Thinking
  • 2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations
  • 2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques
  • 2.5 Combating Digital Disinformation
  • Chapter 3 • Choosing the Right Technique
  • 3.1 The Six Families
  • 3.2 Core Techniques
  • 3.3 Selecting the Right Technique
  • 3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques
  • 3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques
  • 3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured Techniques
  • Chapter 4 • Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration
  • 4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams
  • 4.2 Dividing the Work
  • 4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes
  • 4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups
  • 4.5 Benefiting from Diversity
  • 4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry
  • 4.7 Leadership and Training
  • Chapter 5 • Getting Organized
  • 5.1 Sorting
  • 5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing
  • 5.3 Matrices
  • 5.4 Process Maps
  • 5.5 Gantt Charts
  • Chapter 6 • Exploration Techniques
  • 6.1 Simple Brainstorming
  • 6.2 Cluster Brainstorming
  • 6.3 Nominal Group Technique
  • 6.4 Circleboarding™
  • 6.5 Starbursting
  • 6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps
  • 6.7 Venn Analysis
  • 6.8 Network Analysis
  • Chapter 7 • Diagnostic Techniques
  • 7.1 Key Assumptions Check
  • 7.2 Chronologies and Timelines
  • 7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix
  • 7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation
  • 7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning
  • 7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
  • 7.7 Inconsistencies Finder™
  • 7.8 Deception Detection
  • 7.9 Argument Mapping
  • Chapter 8 • Reframing Techniques
  • 8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques
  • 8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques
  • 8.3 Conflict Management Techniques
  • Chapter 9 • Foresight Techniques
  • 9.1 Key Drivers Generation™
  • 9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder™
  • 9.3 Reversing Assumptions
  • 9.4 Simple Scenarios
  • 9.5 Cone of Plausibility
  • 9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis
  • 9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation
  • 9.8 Morphological Analysis
  • 9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning
  • 9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives
  • 9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation
  • Chapter 10 • Decision Support Techniques
  • 10.1 Opportunities Incubator™
  • 10.2 Bowtie Analysis
  • 10.3 Impact Matrix
  • 10.4 SWOT Analysis
  • 10.5 Critical Path Analysis
  • 10.6 Decision Trees
  • 10.7 Decision Matrix
  • 10.8 Force Field Analysis
  • 10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
  • 10.10 Complexity Manager
  • Chapter 11 • The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques
  • 11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis
  • 11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques
  • 11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques
  • 11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030

Recent Product Reviews:

“This is one of the rare textbooks extant that succeed brilliantly in solving the basic dilemma of every textbook: to be accessible to the novice and at the same time exact in the details. It does so by following the identical text structure for each of the techniques it discusses. As a consequence, it is at the same time a textbook and a work of reference.”
Christian Dayé, Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt, Austria
“An accessible explanation of structured analytic techniques that will help students, academics and intelligence analysts to produce better research.”
Dr. Antony Field, California State University San Bernardino
“Structured Analytical Techniques by Heuer and Pherson provides students with a comprehensive understanding of the analytical tools used by intelligence professionals, in order to overcome cognitive biases and learn to solve problems collaboratively.”
Richard J. Kilroy, Jr., Coastal Carolina University
“Heuer and Pherson’s Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis is a comprehensive and accessibly written text that will be of interest to both novices and professionals alike. Its comprehensive coverage of analytical techniques, and the analytical process, make this work an essential reading for students of intelligence analysis.”
Christopher K. Lamont, University of Groningen
“Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader.”
Charles E. Wilson, University of Detroit Mercy

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