Heatwaves and Hidden Consequences

"The growing impact of climate change on India’s rivers, coastlines, and industries poses a threat to millions of people."

‘Gearing up for the hottest summer yet’ feels like a yearly refrain, one that is likely to continue as global temperatures continue to rise as a result of the climate crisis. In India—one of the two most populous countries in the world—the unmitigated heat of the summer is not only an ecological crisis, but an issue that causes domino effects from human quality of life to the economy and India’s political power. The need for effective climate adaptation strategies is not the need of the hour, but the need of hours long past.

Let us first consider the effects of global warming in the Indian subcontinent. Increasing global temperatures have caused a rise in sea levels, which have already impacted low-lying areas like the Sundarbans—a prolific source of biodiversity and the only remaining habitat of the Bengal tiger—and resulted in the displacement of thousands of people. Rising temperatures in the Himalayas have caused weakening of permafrost, melting of glaciers, and an increased incidence of natural disasters like landslides and glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These circumstances create significant risk across North and North-East India, as well as neighbouring regions like Bhutan and Bangladesh. In South India, floods and coastal challenges resulting from sea-level changes are bound to increase because of climate change. Reduction in freshwater is also impacting the subcontinent, especially in the agricultural sector, one of the biggest employers in the country.

Another consequence of rising global temperatures? More heat waves. In India, it is estimated that 1,116 people have died every year between 2008–19 from heat-related causes. Studies have reported that a third of heatwave days in India in 2024 were driven by climate change. These numbers are reason enough to embrace climate adaptation plans with alacrity, but there is another pressing factor in favour of action—the economic consequences.

If global warming continues unchecked, then India’s GDP could decline by up to 9% in the coming years. In 2024, it was estimated that 247 billion potential labour hours were lost due to high temperatures, estimated to be around INR 18 lakh crore (USD 194 billion). India is also expected to face more power cuts during extreme weather, despite an increase in its installed electrical capacity, dealing another blow to industries and economic endeavours. Extreme heat also causes enormous losses to earnings from the informal sector of workers in India, which, according to National Accounts Statistics, contributed about 45% to the GDP in 2022–23. Unpredictable weather conditions—for example, a 65% variability in temperature and 30% variability in precipitation—further exacerbate these issues.

It is worthwhile to note here, that as of 2024, India contributes less than 9% of global emissions and less than 3.5% of global emissions historically despite hosting nearly one-fifth of the world’s population. Compare this to the United States’ 12.7% in 2024 and historical 23.5% for 4% of the world’s population. It is not just India, neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Nepal are in the same boat. On the whole, countries in the Global South are disproportionately affected by climate change, despite significantly lower per capita contributions to emissions, a situation that has been likened to climate colonialism and climate apartheid. Yet, without action and tangible plans for mitigation, the manifold impacts on vulnerable regions will continue.

How can more effective climate policy and climate policy implementation at a national level help India? That question answers itself. The more urgent question is, how can this be achieved? Experts suggest that a bottom-up approach involving the demands of tribal and rural communities is integral to success. Accelerated expansion of renewable energy sources and reduced dependence on fossil fuels is also key. India is one of the top performers in the renewable energy sector, but there is a lot more work to be done to meet its energy needs. Intentional, climate-friendly, sustainable urban design and infrastructure centred in accessibility and affordability could improve quality of life for citizens bearing the brunt of extreme temperatures. Other areas of policy focus include improving energy efficiency, enhancing natural carbon sinks, and investing in technological solutions for carbon capture.

In addition to these measures, global cooperation through multilateral agreements is critical to decisive climate action. The unfortunate trend from recent global conferences on the climate crisis has been to shift goalposts, not gears. Accelerated action on an international level is the only way to stop the ongoing damage from climate change.

The term ‘Indian summer’ used to refer to an idyllic spell of heat in the cold seasons. Now, it is a warning—this is the future if action remains superficial.