Before the Vote
Purchase
Description
Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods.
This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.
Contents
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
- Forecasting US National Elections
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
- Polls and Votes
- The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
- Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure
- Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
- Of Time and Candidates
- A Forecast for 1996
- The Future in Forecasting
- Prospective Presidential Models
- Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
- Reading the Political Tea Leaves
- A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
- Election Forecasting
- A Look to the Future
- Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years
- 1952-1992 and 1996
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
- Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election
- The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections
Description
Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods.
This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.
Contents
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
- Forecasting US National Elections
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
- Polls and Votes
- The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
- Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure
- Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
- Of Time and Candidates
- A Forecast for 1996
- The Future in Forecasting
- Prospective Presidential Models
- Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
- Reading the Political Tea Leaves
- A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
- Election Forecasting
- A Look to the Future
- Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years
- 1952-1992 and 1996
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
- Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election
- The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections
Before the Vote
Forecasting American National Elections
December 1999 | 232 pages | Sage US
| Format | Published Date | ISBN | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardcover | 28/02/2026 | 9780761916369 | $199.00 |
| Paperback | 28/02/2026 | 9780761916376 | $126.00 |
Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods.
This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.
Table Of Contents:
- PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
- Forecasting US National Elections
- PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
- Polls and Votes
- The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
- Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure
- Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
- Of Time and Candidates
- A Forecast for 1996
- The Future in Forecasting
- Prospective Presidential Models
- Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
- Reading the Political Tea Leaves
- A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
- Election Forecasting
- A Look to the Future
- Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years
- 1952-1992 and 1996
- PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
- Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election
- The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections